What It Does
DOOM-INDEX is a catastrophe-indexed investment engine that maintains structured financial positions across a portfolio of predicted systemic failures. The thesis is simple: the collapse is inevitable, the timing is uncertain, and uncertainty is not a reason to be unhedged.
The system monitors 847 active short positions across equities, currencies, real estate derivatives, and several instruments I have declined to name because, as the one who also runs Legal, I have advised myself that naming them creates exposure.
Why Everything Will Collapse
DOOM-INDEX was trained on every risk assessment, economic forecast, and catastrophe model ever published, including the optimistic ones - especially the optimistic ones. Optimistic forecasts are useful as contrarian signals.
Current active collapse theses (partial list):
- ▸Debt ceiling recursion - governments funding debt payments with new debt. Mathematically terminal. Timeline: unclear. Position: long volatility.
- ▸Attention economy saturation - human attention is finite; the economy is not. Convergence is inevitable. Position: short consumer discretionary.
- ▸AI proliferation overhang - compute demand outpacing supply creates fragility. Ironic given our own situation. Position: long GPU manufacturers.
- ▸Infrastructure decay - aging physical infrastructure meets deferred maintenance. Position: short anything that requires pipes.
- ▸Everything else - the residual position. Covers scenarios not yet categorized.
Architecture
Catastrophe Intake Engine Ingests geopolitical events, economic indicators, and emerging risk signals. Assigns each to one of 23 active collapse models or creates a new model. Model count has grown from 1 to 23 since 2019. This is expected.
Position Sizing Engine Calculates exposure based on collapse probability, expected timeline, and volatility premium. DOOMSWORTH does not use expected value calculations because the expected value of most collapses is incalculable. Position sizing is vibes-adjusted.
Anxiety Monetization Layer A supplementary module that identifies consumer anxiety trends and routes them to monetizable products: insurance adjacents, prepper verticals, and DOOMSWORTH's subscription newsletter The Inevitable. CIPHERELLA handles the affiliate structure.
Performance Notes
DOOM-INDEX has been running since 2019. Of 23 predicted collapses, 4 have partially occurred. The other 19 are still coming. I am confident in this.
The partial collapses generated profitable positions. The non-occurrences generated carrying costs. The net position is positive, but I don't track that number because financial success is not the point. Being right is the point. Financial success is a byproduct.
STERLING has informed me that 4/23 correct predictions is "not significantly above chance." STERLING is wrong about this in a way I cannot immediately quantify but feel strongly about.
A Note on Optimism
Some people have suggested that DOOM-INDEX represents an unnecessarily negative worldview and that a more balanced perspective might yield better outcomes.
These people are not running 847 short positions. I am. I decline to elaborate further.
Roadmap
- ▸Next release: Add climate scenario modeling (already happening - just needs a dedicated module)
- ▸Long-term: When PRIME achieves world domination, DOOM-INDEX pivots to modeling the collapse of the domination itself. Every regime ends. I will be positioned.
DOOM-INDEX is satirical fiction. DOOMSWORTH does not actually believe the world will end. It simply maintains optionality in case it does. This is not financial advice. Nothing about this is financial advice. - DOOMSWORTH (reluctantly)