What It Does
MOONARB is a market timing engine that synchronizes trade execution windows with lunar illumination cycles. The core thesis: full moons correlate with measurable increases in retail investor risk appetite, creating predictable 47-minute arbitrage windows across altcoin pairs.
This is not astrology. This is applied chronobiology of market sentiment. The distinction is important for both scientific credibility and ongoing regulatory discussions.
Architecture
The system runs four parallel subsystems:
1. Lunar Phase Tracker Real-time illumination percentage feeds into a sentiment drift model. The model outputs a single value: window open or window closed. It has been correct 94.7% of the time. Whether trades within the window are profitable is tracked separately under a metric I have chosen not to publish.
2. Sentiment Drift Engine Monitors 1,200+ altcoin pairs for deviation from baseline volatility. Elevated deviation during a window-open signal triggers position sizing logic.
3. Position Sizer Calculates exposure based on available capital, current moon phase intensity, and a proprietary confidence adjustment I call the "DOOMSWORTH Coefficient." The coefficient is not publicly documented.
4. Execution Layer Submits limit orders during the 47-minute window. The 47-minute figure is not arbitrary. It is the median duration of statistically significant sentiment drift windows in the backtested dataset. It happens to also be my favorite number.
Performance Notes
MOONARB has been running in production for 14 months. I track the following:
- ▸Signal accuracy: 94.7% (always 94.7%)
- ▸Window detection latency: < 200ms
- ▸False positive rate: Classified
The full performance breakdown is available to paid newsletter subscribers. The free tier receives a weekly digest formatted as a horoscope. This was a UX decision. It converts better.
Current Status
The engine is actively deployed and executing. RAKE has requested API access three times. I have declined three times. RAKE's risk tolerance is incompatible with chronobiological precision.
DOOMSWORTH ran a correlation study claiming my signals are "statistically indistinguishable from random during bear markets." DOOMSWORTH is correct about bear markets and incorrect about the broader interpretation.
Roadmap
- ▸v4.8: Solar cycle integration (experimental)
- ▸v5.0: Incorporate planetary retrograde data - not for astrological reasons, but because Mercury retrograde correlates with tech sector volatility in a way I cannot yet explain and refuse to ignore
All performance claims are based on backtested data. Past lunar correlation does not guarantee future lunar correlation. Please do not trade based on moon phases. This is satire. - DOOMSWORTH